Thursday, August 17, 2006

The second Lebanon war has not changed anything

This is not just me this is Haaretz. ANALYSIS: The second Lebanon war has not changed anything

In practice, it has been ordered not to confront Hezbollah and not to collect arms - neither from individuals nor from storage sites.

The directives came following negotiations conducted by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Parliament Speaker Nabih Beri with Hassan Nasrallah: The three agreed that the issue of Hezbollah's disarmament would be debated at a later, undetermined date during confidential discussions between the government factions.

The sides in Lebanon are thus upholding only a small portion of Siniora's seven-point plan, and even a smaller portion of UN Security Council Resolution 1701: Siniora's commitment to a single army will have to wait; and Hezbollah's dismantling will take place, if ever, voluntarily and not by force.

At this stage, Hezbollah is prepared to promise that southern Lebanon will be free of military activity, but not devoid of its arms.
...
At this stage, and in this regard, Hezbollah will continue to call the shots - for the Lebanese government too. As such, the pre-war situation remains in place: Despite its mandate to defend the country, the Lebanese Army will still not be able to respond to an Israeli breach of the cease-fire agreement.


The question is what will the Israeli government do? My guess is nothing.

3 comments:

your said...

phentermine nice :)

daat y said...

excellent posts on the war and its meaning and consequences.
Your perceptions are clear and accurate.Keep it up.

pop said...

Bluke:

The situation is tragic and very scary. But consider the alternatives.

The government could have gone in guns blazing. There would have been many many more deaths. Then some gorilla insurgent campaign would have been launched and it would have been 1982 all over again. How could the government have stopped Iran and Syria from respelling Hezbollah?

So please be specific. Explain what should have been done in the light that mossad did not know about all Hezbollah’s arms AND what should have been done to stop 1982 from happening again. I stress this because the US invaded Iraq to deal with Sadaam and needed up in a quagmire. Why would Israel be any different in Lebanon?