Sunday, August 13, 2006

Is the ceasefire DOA?

The Lebanese cabinet meeting which was supposed to discuss the implementation of the cease-fire was postponed indefinately (Lebanese Cabinet meeting indefinitely postponed). This means that the Lebanese army is not going to be deploying in South Lebanon any time soon.

Debka is reporting that Lebanon is backing away from their acceptance.

After Israel`s government approves ceasefire, the Beirut government begins to backtrack from its acceptance - pulled back by Syrian and Iranian warnings

Iran is now demanding assurances from the Siniora government that the Hizballah will not be disarmed after Lebanese troops and 15,000 peacemakers are deployed, calling the step “illogical.”

This makes a lot of sense. They can have their cake and eat it too. Israel has already accepted the ceasefire which means that it will be very hard for the government to back out now. This means that Israel will stop it's attacks and withdraw, while Hezbollah will not be disarmed and will in fact be rearmed.

In Israel the political infighting has begun. Shaul Mofaz the only minister not to vote for the cease fire had fierce critiscism for the ceasefire agreement (השר מופז, שנמנע היום בהצבעת הממשלה, ביקר בחריפות את ההחלטה 'שצידה היישומי לא ברור' (Hebrew only)

His basic point which is absolutely correct is that Israel is getting a worthless piece of paper. The agreement does not address the following 2 crucial points:
1. Who is going to disarm Hezbollah?
2. What about the 2 kidnapped soldiers?


Debka is reporting the following:

Hamadi information minister, a Druze, said Sunday night that Nasrallah had broken his word to order Hizballah fighters south of the Litani to hand in their weapons to allow Lebanese army troops to be deployed there. DEBKAfile reports: Amid heavy fighting across the entire Lebanese front, Israeli field commanders await directives for Monday 0800 hours when the ceasefire deadline goes into force.
DEBKAfile has learned that Tehran has meanwhile ordered Nasrallah to keep Israel engaged in combat for another 3 to 4. As a result of which he suddenly backed away from his pledges to France and the Siniora government Saturday to accept a ceasefire and a UNIFIL force in south Lebanon.

Nasrallah said he would wait a month to see how Israel’s retreat from the disputed Shabaa Farms was progressing.

At five minutes notice, the thunderstruck Lebanese ministers called off their meeting to discuss the deployment of their forces in the south and the disarming of Hizballah

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