Monday, August 14, 2006

How the ceasefire may play out

This is one scenario of what may happen.

Nasrallah will stop shooting Katyushas into Israel, however, Hezbollah will not disarm and will not stop attacking Israeli soldiers. Nasrallah will claim that he is fighting to liberate Lebanon from the occupiers. What will happen is the following:
  1. Hezbollah will refuse to disarm and the Lebanese government will do nothing

  2. Hezbollah will attack Israeli troops who are in static positions and cause a few casualties a day. Analysis The IDF must leave Lebanon at once

    Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's position is clear: He will comply with that element of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 only after the Israel Defense Forces withdraws from south Lebanon and the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL take its place. Until then, he is willing to accept only the 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath understandings, under which both sides will keep fighting, but will not target each other's civilians. In other words, Hezbollah will not fire rockets at Israel if Israel does not bomb Lebanon, but the ground war in south Lebanon will continue and if Israel's bombing continues, so will Hezbollah's Katyushas.

  3. Israeli troops will defend themselves but not break the ceasefire with massive attacks

  4. The UN forces will not deploy to South Lebanon because there is still fighting

  5. After a period of time, the 4 mothers will get up again and say why are we sitting in Lebanon? I was too optimistic, already today Israeli troops are starting to withdraw, and within the week most of the troops will be out of Lebanon. It goes without saying, that this means that the IDF will not be conducting searches for Hezbollah fighters or arms caches in the areas that it has captured over the last few days, which the army defined as "the heart of the operational campaign" against Hezbollah. How fast things change.

  6. The pressure will cause Israel to withdraw unilaterally with assurance that after the withdrawal the UN and the Lebanese army will move South This is already happening.

  7. The UN and Lebanese army may actually move South but Hezbollah is already there armed and ready and neither force has the stomach to fight Hezbollah

  8. The situation in Southern Lebanon is basically back to where it is on July 12th


A depressing scenario, but unfortunately a very realistic one. Number 1 has already happened, Nasrallah has announced that 2 is going to happen, the rest follow logically.


The questions about the ceasefire have already started. What will Israel do if Syria starts rearming Hezbollah? Will the government have the courage to break the ceasefire?

IDF to uphold 'fragile' cease-fire

But the question of will Israel do if Syria sends weapon convoys into Lebanon to help rehabilitate Hizbullah remains unanswered. "This is a serious question that requires a decision by the diplomatic echelon," the officer said. "We need to prevent the Hizbullah from rebuilding itself. The question is how far are we willing to go to do that."

1 comment:

daat y said...

brilliant analysis and very realistic.
We have lost the war and are in serious existential difficulty.