Monday, August 14, 2006

Further ceasefire concessions???

The ink on the ceasefire has not yet dried but according to some on the Left, Israel already need to make further concessions to help the "weak" Lebanese government (where have we heard this before).

Although the UN Resolution explicitly calls for the Lebanese Army and UN troops to deploy before the IDF leaves, Haaretz is already writing the following:

Analysis The IDF must leave Lebanon at once

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's position is clear: He will comply with that element of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 only after the Israel Defense Forces withdraws from south Lebanon and the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL take its place. Until then, he is willing to accept only the 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath understandings, under which both sides will keep fighting, but will not target each other's civilians. In other words, Hezbollah will not fire rockets at Israel if Israel does not bomb Lebanon, but the ground war in south Lebanon will continue and if Israel's bombing continues, so will Hezbollah's Katyushas.

In Hezbollah's view, there is no point in discussing disarmament now, because it believes it currently has the only force capable of expelling the IDF and protecting Lebanon's citizens. And the Lebanese government has trouble rejecting this view, because it knows that its army cannot deploy until the fighting stops. Otherwise, it is likely to become embroiled in a fight with the IDF itself. Therefore, the cabinet decided to defer discussion of Hezbollah's disarmament until it becomes clear how the cease-fire takes shape on the ground.
Therefore, it is vital that the IDF leave Lebanon quickly. The fate of Resolution 1701 depends on it.

In other words, because the Lebanese government doesn't have the courage and/or strength to deploy it's troops to South Lebanon when the IDF is there, let's just run away again and hope for the best. Just like Oslo, just like the Hitnatkut, let's ignore reality and live in our fantasy world that the Arab world will love us if we just "stop the occupation".

Of course this will just allow Hezbollah to return to their previous positions and turn the clock back to July 12th, but Olmert doesn't care, he already declared victory.

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