Sunday, January 18, 2009

Ceasefire deja vu

Here is what I think is going to happen. Hamas will cease fire long enough for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. As soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza and frees the reserves they will go right back to what they were doing before the war started. They will test Israel's resolve by firing 1 or 2 rockets. How will Israel respond? Many will say that we can't go to war because of 2 rockets. Hamas will fire just enough to keep the people down South edgy but not enough to justify another full scale attack. They will also start smuggling weapons again. There is absolutely no reason to think that Egypt will do any better at stopping the smuggling now.

Last but not least, they will continue holding Gilad Shalit and use him as a bargaining chip.

In short, it looks like we are back to where we were 6 months ago.


zdub said...

While I don't disagree with your general premise, I didn't hear anything about Shalit during the current operation. Why didn't Hamas use him as a bargaining chip?

Mighty Garnel Ironheart said...

Shalit is dead and has been since probably shortly after he was kidnapped and forced to make those tapes that get released every so often.

And you're right except that it won't be 1-2 rockets. It'll be 6-10 a day but the Israeli government will be the one supressing the news because they don't want to look bad.

yitz said...

Did anyone expect anything different from the Three Stooges [Olmert, Barak, and Livni]?

bluke said...

No. It just would have been nice for once to be pleasantly surprised.

zdub said...

This Reuter's line after the "cease-fire" says it all:

"After 22 days of fierce assaults in the Gaza Strip, Israel appeared to be back at the starting point."

bluke said...

Ariel, it is really very simple. There is no point in starting a war that you don't intend to win. All you are doing is wasting soldiers lives. Once the war started then you need to carry it through to victory.

Unfortunately, the government has not done what I wanted for a long time. This article by Moshe Feiglin hopefully explains things better then I can.