Monday, July 17, 2006

How many innocent Jews need to be die ...

before all those on the left who were in favor of running away from Lebanon and leaving Gaza will admit that they were wrong? How can anyone today possibly be in favor of further retreats in the West Bank?

The country from Haifa on northwards is completely shut down, people are getting killed by rockets daily, and why? Because the government did nothing while Hezbollah and Hamas rearmed and got ready for war and in fact encouraged them by running away and showing them that terror works.

Here is an article from Haaretz (not exactly a right wing newspaper) which says it quite well, We deserve the Qassams and the Katyushas

The hundreds of Qassams and Katyushas that have landed in the south and north are a natural response coming from those who, over the years, have grown used to believing that Israel regards the thousands of mortars and Qassams on the inhabitants of Gush Katif as nothing more than rain.
...
The kidnapping of the soldiers was practically obligatory from someone who understands that "deterrence," a much-favored term used by many Israelis, was a kind of self-delusion, largely virtual, and that Israeli prisoners, for those who swore they would "not get down on the knees," are worth a few hundred terrorists.

Hezbollah and its Palestinian pupils internalized this and made note of it. After the wars against terror, like the one going on now, come the retreats, and then more wars, which lead to more retreats. Terror sows and then reaps. Fact: The blood of the dead and wounded had yet to dry and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was already making clear that in addition to the two fronts where unilateral steps were taken - with great success, as everyone knows - he will undertake another unilateral move. The "convergence," right next to the main mass of Israel's population, will take place, he insists.

The truth? We earned it honestly as a nation of gullible fools, who over and over followed the illusions of quiet, peace and demography sold buy its leaders. We deserve it. However, the influence of the recent events has moved something, maybe temporarily, but something has moved.


As I wrote earlier peace happens only after you DEFEAT your enemies. I refer you again to this article Victory process, not peace process, needed in Middle East. Until the government understands this point there will be no peace.

11 comments:

Droesh said...

Bluke:

Its all fine and dandy to say things are a mess and mistake were made but with respect to the following points what would you do?


1. Fundamentally Israel cannot rule millions of non citizen Arabs for the long term. Within 20 years there will be more Arabs living in Gaza and the west bank than Jews in Israel. What then? Its asking for trouble. Its anti democratic. The only way to ensure peace would be to impose a totalitarian regime on the Palestinians. So eventually Israel has to withdraw so long as there is a Palestinian population there. What other realistic choice does Israel have?

2. These rockets from Hezbollah could you well know have fallen on Israel even if it did not leave any occupied territory. And the government would have had to respond in that case too.

3. Now that these attacks have started what do you want the government to do? What exactly does a 'victory process' entail? If you bomb Lebanon will these alone stop Hezbollah? Even if they bombed Lebanon back to the stone age Hezbollah would still be launching rockets or some kind of attacks. They are ready to fight to the death.

4. The only possible so called victory process that I can imagine would entail going to war with Syria. On with Syria's help is a lot of the violence possible. That would mean massive bombing of Syria and a brutal occupation. At least a million Syrians would end up dieing. Then Israel would have to invade Lebanon and possibly forcibly relocate the southern shia Lebanese to Syria. To do this would involve more violence. After all the dust settled millions in Lebanon and Syria would be dead. Is this what you want? How do you think the EU would respond? I imagine they and most of the world would impose harsh sanctions. Short of this I know of no other 'victory process'.

5. Do you advocate forcibly making the Palestinians in the territories leave? Would you be prepared to open fire on them if they refused? You know Egypt, Jordon, Lebanon ect would never willingly accept them. Would you force them into Syria or Jordan by force? You probably would have to kill hundreds of thousands of them before the process was complete. Yes, it would 'solve' the problem permanently but at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. Because of future anger of this Israel would need to be prepared to kill millions more in the future if these exiled Palestinians tried to get even. Yes after a few more million were killed things would settle down but again that would take the taking of even more lives and probably the use of nuclear weapons. So again what would your plan be here?

6. Before Rabin was assassinated things were improving. From my understanding things went into reverse and Israel tried to undermine the Palestinian authority afterwards. Many on the left claim this was why Oslo failed. Do you disagree with this? Or do you think it was correct for a new tack to be taken and that Israel was right to undermine the PA?

bluke said...

Here are some answers:
1. This is a problem created by the Israeli government in 1967 when instead of encouraging the Arabs to leave the begged them to stay.

The answer today is a combination of encouraging the Arabs to leave and having them become citizens of Jordan. This is basically the plan offered by Benny Elon:
1. The establishment of a cease-fire and negotiations under international auspices to relocate refugees in Arab countries and the dismantling of refugee camps, along with the establishment of a Jordan-Palestinian state with Amman as its capital.
2. Arabs who remain in Judea and Samaria would be offered citizenship in the Jordanian-Palestinian state.
3. Arab citizens of Israel also would be offered such status.
4. If the Arabs of Judea and Samaria breach the terms of the agreement, they would be forcibly deported to the other side of the Jordan River.

2. The government by running away from Lebanon and then when 3 soldiers were kidnapped doing nothing gave Hezbollah the green light to arm up and act with impunity.

3. Unconditional surrender. In 1942 what would you have said to Hitler? Would you have advocated negotiations with him? After all, peace is made with enemies. The Allied stance of unconditional surrender was the correct one and allowed both Germany and Japan to be rehabilitated and become productive states. See A difficult lesson for a good example of this.

4. You are making things out as worse then they are

5. see 1 above.

Anonymous said...

> Before Rabin was assassinated things were improving.

You have a short memory. See this:

http://www.israel-mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Speeches/INTERVIEW%20WITH%20PRIME%20MINISTER%20YITZHAK%20RABIN%20ON%20ISR

"The cruel murder carried out in Afula in a suicide carbomb attack on a bus and bus stop, which caused us painful losses, was a hard blow."

And this:

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Speeches/RABIN%20REMARKS%20ON%20TEL%20AVIV%20BOMBING%20-%2019-Oct-94

Doresh said...

Bluke:

Palestinians in Jordan and Lebonon are discriminated against. Some of it is legal and some of it is cultural. Many are not allowed citizenship. Both the Lebanese and the Jordanians do not want any more Palestinians in their countries. King Hussain of Jordan is particularly worried about possible insurrection by them. So how exactly is Israel going to 'persuade' these countries to take the Palestinians? What kind of negotiations would engender this?

Palestinians do not want to leave Gaza or the west bank. They are fervent nationalists. Now more so than ever. What will persuade them? They already have been impoverished and they still want to stay. Palestinians in Jordan and Lebanon who were expelled in previous decades long to come back. I don’t think offering them $10,000 each will change their minds. So how would you get any significant proportion of them to leave?

Would Arab citizens or Israel lose their Israeli citizenship? If so they would surely turn violent. You think not?

How will Israel persuade the Jordanian government to give Palestinians who live in the West bank and Gaza citizenship of Jordan? Again I don’t think handing over a few billion will do it. The Jordanians don’t want them. And do you honestly think that just because the Palestinians in the West bank and Gaza have Jordanian citizenship they will acquiesce to Israeli control of Gaza and the West Bank? They will still be violent and they will still want political control of where they live. To believe otherwise on the light of the last 60 is to be naive. They will still try violently to gain control of the occupied territories. And what then?

I find your plan full of wishful thinking. I too would hope it could come true but there is no evidence that any Arab party would agree. All the evidence points the other way.

Anonymous said...

Apr 6, 1994 - Eight people were killed in a car-bomb attack on a bus in the center of Afula. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.

Apr 13, 1994 - Five people were killed in a suicide bombing attack on a bus in the central bus station of Hadera. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.

Oct 19, 1994 - In a suicide bombing attack on the No. 5 bus on Dizengoff Street in Tel-Aviv, 21 Israelis and one Dutch national were killed.

Nov 11, 1994 - Three soldiers were killed at the Netzarim junction in the Gaza Strip when a Palestinian riding a bicycle detonated explosives strapped to his body. Islamic Jihad said it carried out the attack to avenge the car bomb killing of Islamic Jihad leader Hani Abed on Nov 2.

Jan 22, 1995 - Two consecutive bombs exploded at the Beit Lid junction near Netanya, killing 20 soldiers and one civilian. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack.

Apr 9, 1995 - Seven Israelis and one American were killed when a bus was hit by an explosives-laden van near Kfar Darom in the Gaza Strip. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack.

Jul 24, 1995 - Six civilians were killed in a suicide bomb attack on a bus in Ramat Gan.

Aug 21, 1995 - Three Israelis and one American were killed in a suicide bombing of a Jerusalem bus.

Anonymous said...

> Within 20 years there will be more Arabs living in Gaza and the west bank than Jews in Israel.

Not true, see this:

http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives15.html

Doresh said...

Approximately 5 out of 11.5 million people in greater Israel are Arab. That is about 43%. So let’s forget about the future. These 5 millions see themselves as a block wanting collective rights. At this point its hard to have a democracy when 43% of the people in an area want a different political setup.

I looked at the details of the Elon Peace Plan. http://www.therightroadtopeace.com/eng/defaulteng.html

Its sheer madness. The Arabs will never willingly agree to this. Not without some cataclysmic change. Its pie in sky wishful thinking.

And as to your objections about population Mr. anonymous there are many opinions and some others seem to see the situation as being one of Jews becoming a minority. Of course I hope your prediction is correct. But what happens if in 2020 there are more Non Jews is the greater Israel area than Jews. Then what? And what if they want a non Jewish state? What then?

And what happens if in 2048 there are more Arab Israelis in Israel proper than Jewish Israelis? What then? And what happens if this comes to pass in 2030?

Shouldn’t we think ahead?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/13/AR2005081300091_pf.html
Here is a projection just for Israeli citizens:
http://www1.cbs.gov.il/popisr/table5.pdf

bluke said...

First of all the Demographic numbers are not nearly as bad as you think. The Paelstinians have overinflated their numbers greatly.

Second, an Elon type plan is the only realistic colution to the conflict.

Think about this, every one talks about the West Bank and Gaza being a Palestinian state, except there is 1 minor problem. They are not contiguous. If Israel would withdraw to the 1967 borders the West Bank and Gaza would be cut off. There never was a Palestinian state there.

The truth is it in Jorndan's interest. The paelstinians already tried once to take over Jordan, a failed Palestinian state in the West Bank will seriously endager Jordan's stability.

Anonymous said...

There are about 3.5 million Arabs between the sea and the Jordan. That is fact, not opinion. You write: "These 5 millions see themselves.." and "They are fervent nationalists". Seems you have good relations with them. How many "Israeli" Arabs do you actually know?

Doresh said...

Hey annonymous, well at least you gave me a chuckle....
I guess you have numeruos isaeli arab friends. Be sure to say hi.



Ok here we go.

1. 1.32 million Arabs in Israel proper. Go see the governments webiste for this:
http://www1.cbs.gov.il/shnaton56/st02_01.pdf

2. 1,428,757 arabs in the gaza strip
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/gz.html

3. 2,460,492 arab in the west bank
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/we.html


2.4 + 1.4 + 1.32 = 5.12


Yes I see the figures are a matter of big dispute:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian

So its conceivable that there are only 3.8 million. And that would make only about 38% of the population. Well maybe. Of course thats still a large percentage.

I do concede that the demographic arguments are not 100% solid but what if they are. Look around in the middle east. The arab population is exploding. I think its reasonable to assume that at the very least the proportion of the total population of the land between the jordan and the Mediteranean that is Arab will increase by at least (lets say) 5% in the next 20 years. Even those who dispute the larger palestinian populations do not dispute this likelyhood.

I will admit this. If and its a big if the Arab population maxs out in the low 40s then there may be for the at least next 100 years be a Jewish majority. But is having such a large minority sustainable? That is another key point.

Anonymous said...

Many Arab villages in the "West Bank", in particular in the Shomron, have become ghost towns after Arafat started his war. Many Arabs have emigrated. It is obvious to anybody familiar with the area (yes, I am among these) that NO WAY there are 2.4 million Arabs residing in the "West Bank". Where would they be living?

Of course, the quite modest Arab population also speaks books about the "enormous" population growth - it's a myth.

See this:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/article.php3?id=6075