The polls in Israel have been seriously wrong in the past few elections and I believe that they are wrong again this year. Therefore I am going to make my own election predictions based on what I see around me and hear on the radio etc.
Likud - 29-31 - I think that the support for Livni is overstated in the polls (remember the Kadima primary and the polls) and the support for the Likud understated
Kadima - low 20's - see above
Yisrael Beitenu/Lieberman - 15 - the polls have definitely inflated his numbers
Labor - 14 - every rocket that falls in the South takes away seats
Shas - 11 - They have lost a lot of votes to the other right wing parties
Yahadut Hatorah (Degel and Aguda) - 4-5 - base this on the fact that all everyone is talking about is the disappointment and anger in the Charedi street. I see a lot of posters similar to the one I posted about here
It will be interesting to see who is closer to the actual results, me or the professional pollsters.
