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Monday, February 09, 2009

My election predictions

The polls in Israel have been seriously wrong in the past few elections and I believe that they are wrong again this year. Therefore I am going to make my own election predictions based on what I see around me and hear on the radio etc.

Likud - 29-31 - I think that the support for Livni is overstated in the polls (remember the Kadima primary and the polls) and the support for the Likud understated
Kadima - low 20's - see above
Yisrael Beitenu/Lieberman - 15 - the polls have definitely inflated his numbers
Labor - 14 - every rocket that falls in the South takes away seats
Shas - 11 - They have lost a lot of votes to the other right wing parties
Yahadut Hatorah (Degel and Aguda) - 4-5 - base this on the fact that all everyone is talking about is the disappointment and anger in the Charedi street. I see a lot of posters similar to the one I posted about here

It will be interesting to see who is closer to the actual results, me or the professional pollsters.

1 Comments:

At 7:11 AM, Blogger SpaceFalcon2001 said...

Looks like you're about right for most. Labor hit slightly harder (13, was 12 for a while), and the Neo-Mafdal parties pulled off 7 (possibly 8).

Kadima outperformed at 28, and Likud is under at 27, but the Nationalists win the coalition easy peasy. Huzzah. Sorry Livni, but we went with Bibi today. Maybe you shouldn't have signed up to be an Olmert Lackey.

 

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