This is what I wrote when Israel declared a cease fire:
Here is what I think is going to happen. Hamas will cease fire long enough for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. As soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza and frees the reserves they will go right back to what they were doing before the war started. They will test Israel's resolve by firing 1 or 2 rockets.
Hamas will fire just enough to keep the people down South edgy but not enough to justify another full scale attack.
Hams just fired 4 rockets this morning, so far no response (all talk no action). The smuggling has started up again as has the firing on Israeli border patrols. In short, we are back to where we were before Operation Cast Lead.
Hopefully this is costing Kadima and Labor votes. It is beyond me how anyone (let alone enough support for 25 seats) could vote for Kadima.