Livni is the Al Gore of Israel

In 2000 Al Gore won the popular vote in the US but lost the Presidency, Livni got more seats but most probably lost the election as well. The fact that Kadima has 1 more seat then the Likud is irrelevant, the Right wing has 65 seats while the Left has 55, 45 without the Arabs.

The Kadima spinmeisters are trying to spin this that soince Kadima has more seats Kadima should form the government. However, this shouldn't fly as she cannot make a government.

My election predictions

The polls in Israel have been seriously wrong in the past few elections and I believe that they are wrong again this year. Therefore I am going to make my own election predictions based on what I see around me and hear on the radio etc.

Likud - 29-31 - I think that the support for Livni is overstated in the polls (remember the Kadima primary and the polls) and the support for the Likud understated
Kadima - low 20's - see above
Yisrael Beitenu/Lieberman - 15 - the polls have definitely inflated his numbers
Labor - 14 - every rocket that falls in the South takes away seats
Shas - 11 - They have lost a lot of votes to the other right wing parties
Yahadut Hatorah (Degel and Aguda) - 4-5 - base this on the fact that all everyone is talking about is the disappointment and anger in the Charedi street. I see a lot of posters similar to the one I posted about here

It will be interesting to see who is closer to the actual results, me or the professional pollsters.

Anti ג flyer

This is amazing. It is going to be very interesting to see how many seats ג gets.

Kiryas Yoel is the poorest place in the US - Updated

It has the highest poverty rate in the US and the second lowest median income. The median household income in Kiryas Joel is $15,848; in Carbondale, Ill., it's $15,799.

Poverty rate

Kiryas Joel: 68 percent
Athens City, Ohio: 52 percent
State College, Pa.: 50 percent
Newburgh: 28 percent

More than two-thirds of Kiryas Joel residents live below the federal poverty line and more than 40 percent receive food stamps, according to the American Community Survey, a U.S. Census Bureau study of every place in the country with 20,000 residents or more.

That makes the village poorer than crumbling big cities like Detroit and noted slums like East St. Louis, and by far the poorest place in the mid-Hudson.

The big question is how much longer can this last? How much longer can the combination of very large families and no secular education manage in tough economic times?

Source: KJ highest US poverty rate, census says

Here are some other very interesting numbers:

The 2000 census reports that only 6.2% of village residents spoke English at home, one of the lowest such percentages in the United States. Over 89% of residents spoke Yiddish at home, while 2.3% spoke Hebrew. Of the Yiddish-speaking population in 2000, 46% spoke English "not well" or "not at all." Overall, including those who primarily spoke Hebrew and European languages as well as primary Yiddish speakers, 46% of Kiryas Joel residents speak English "not well" or "not at all."

Almost 50% of the population doesn't speak English well.

The Israeli press aginst Livni?

Hard to believe but a number of papers published very scathing attacks on Livni. Haaretz published an article by Ari Shavit where he goes so far as to say that Tzipi Livni is not fit to be prime minister.

All these issues, however, are dwarfed by the question of all questions that Livni evokes: Who is she and what is her inner core? A few of the people I spoke to this week had a disturbing response to this question: Tzipi Livni is hollow. They argued that Livni lacks the cultural baggage, historic vision, emotional tools and personal abilities of a leader. She has never shown civil courage, has no achievements to her name and has never gone against the tide. She recites a series of correct statements about dividing the country but does not know how to translate them into policy. That is why her negotiations with Ahmed Qureia failed and why her faith in Annapolis was proved false.
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One of the people I spoke to was especially agitated despite being a mature, restrained and conservative person. He told me he felt like a member of some cult with a terrible secret: Tzipi Livni is not fit to be prime minister. There is a black flag waving above her journey to the Prime Minister's Office.

The witness said it was inconceivable to him that the media are not revealing this secret; intolerable that the public does not know.

Walla also published an article against Livni.

יתרה מכך: בקמפיין הבחירות הקצרצר מנסה מנהיגת המפלגה להבליט את חלקה במבצע עופרת יצוקה. צריך מידה לא מבוטלת של עזות מצח כדי להתגאות בפעולה שנולדה אך ורק בשל מחדליה של אותה מפלגה ממש. כי קדימה, יש לזכור, הוקמה על טיקט אחד: ההתנתקות. היציאה מעזה הביאה למרד נגד אריאל שרון בליכוד, לפרישתו מהפלגה ולייסוד גוף פוליטי חדש. ההתנתקות הובילה לעליית החמאס, ומלחמת לבנון מוטטה באופן סופי את אידיאולוגיית ההתכנסות שבה נופף אולמרט.
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ה התחיל בהפיכתו של אריאל שרון הקיצוני לסבא החביב והאחראי של כולנו והמשיך בהצגתה של לבני כמנהיגה נקיה, שמנותקת לחלוטין ממפלגתה האפורה, תוך תמרון וירטואוזי בין עמדת האופוזיציונרית בכל מקרה של כשלון (השחיתויות, התגובה הרפה למשבר הכלכלי ומלחמת לבנון) לבין הידחפות לכסא ההנהגה כל אימת שנרשם הישג, לכאורה (המבצע בעזה).

In truth, I simply cannot understand how any thinking person can vote for Livni and Kadima. The fact that she has 20-25 seats in the polls is simply mind boggling.

A guide to getting in to a Charedi Girls High School

יוכבד מתקבלת

This article explains the process for getting into a Charedi girls high school. Quite sad. The author exaggerates a bit to make her points but on the whole the article is pretty much true.

I hate to say it, but I told you so

This is what I wrote when Israel declared a cease fire:

Here is what I think is going to happen. Hamas will cease fire long enough for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. As soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza and frees the reserves they will go right back to what they were doing before the war started. They will test Israel's resolve by firing 1 or 2 rockets.
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Hamas will fire just enough to keep the people down South edgy but not enough to justify another full scale attack.

Hams just fired 4 rockets this morning, so far no response (all talk no action). The smuggling has started up again as has the firing on Israeli border patrols. In short, we are back to where we were before Operation Cast Lead.

Hopefully this is costing Kadima and Labor votes. It is beyond me how anyone (let alone enough support for 25 seats) could vote for Kadima.

Must we believe that there is השגחה פרטית on animals?

R' Nasan Enshin is a kannoi (he doesn't vote in the elections etc.) who writes a weekly column in the Mishpacha magazine in Hebrew. This week he made the following point. He said that in the past Rishonim held points of view that today are considered heretical. He gave the example that a few (his language) Rishonim held that there is no השגחה פרטית on animals. He then compares anyone who believes that today to someone who would eat chicken with milk. He says that someone who believes today that there is no השגחה פרטית on animals believes in דעות כוזבות (illegitimate, false views).

IMHO the comparison he makes is completely invalid and it is perfectly legitimate to believe that there is no השגחה פרטית on animals.

He states that a few Rishonim held this view. Actually, I believe that the majority of Rishonim held this view including some of the greatest, the Rambam and the Ramban. I don't know of any Rishonim who explicitly argue with the Rambam and the Ramban.

The Sefer HaChinuch, Mitzvah 169 writes the following:

There are sects among mankind who maintain that Divine providence controls all the matters of this world… that when a leaf falls from a tree, He decreed that it would fall…. This approach is far-removed from the intellect.

In other words according to R' Enshin anyone who doesn't believe what the Chinuch called far-removed from the intellect is an apikorsus. Anyone who doesn't believe that everything that happens (even the most insignificant thing like a leaf falling from a tree) is decreed from heaven is an apikorsus.

This kind of statement boggles the mind. Most of the Rishonim including both the Rambam and the Ramban hold like the Chinuch. They state explicitly that except for exceptional tzadikkim everyone is exposed to (chance) מקרה. The amount of hashgocha a person has is directly related to how close they are to Hashem. The average person is very much exposed to chance (the forces of nature etc.).

The opinion that R' Enshin is quoting is based on the Ari, the Baal Shem Tov and others. However, the fact is that many Acharonim after the Ari and the Besht agreed with the Rishonim.

The Meshech Chochma( Shemos 13:9)writes:

Divine Providence is manifest for each Jew according to his spiritual level as the Rambam explains in Moreh Nevuchim (3:18): Divine Providence is not equal for everyone but rather is proportional to their spiritual level. Consequently the Divine Providence for the prophets is extremely powerful each according to their level of prophecy. The Divine Providence for the pious and saintly is according to their level of perfection. In contrast the fools and the rebels lacking spirituality are in essence in the same category as animals... This concept that Divine Providence is proportional to spiritual level is one of foundations of Judaism...

The Meshech Chochma died less then a hundred years ago, yet he still held like the Rambam and the Chinuch.

There is one more very important point. There can be no psak here. This is a hashkafic issue and not a halachic one and therefore it is not נתפס in psak. The Rambam writes in 3 places in the Perush Hamishnayos (Sanhedrin 10,3, Sotah 3,3, Shavuos 4,1) and in the Sefer Hamitzvos lo taaseh 133 that there is no psak on hashkafa which is not relevant to halacha. The last point is a crucial one, namely the Rambam is talking where there is no practical difference in halacha. Here is a quote from one of the Rambam's (Sotah 3,3 the language is almost the same in all of them)

וכבר אמרתי פעמים רבות כשיש מח' בין החכמים בסברת אמונה אין תכליתו מעשה מן המעשים שאין אומרים שם הלכה כפלוני

As I already wrote many times when there is a dispute between the chachamim on a matter of faith that has no relevance to action we don't say the hakacha is like ploni

Whether there is hashgoch pratis on animals is a perfect example of what the Rambam is talking about. There is no נפקא מינא להלכה and therefore there can be no psak. To compare it to chicken and milk is absolutely wrong. Chicken and milk is a מחלוקת התנאים on a halachic issue where there was a clear psak in the Gemara. השגחה פרטית is a hashkafic issue where there never was a psak and there never will be a psak.

Shas is trying to attract Ashkenazi Charedi votes

Many Ashkenazi Charedim are upset at the Ashkenazi Charedi leadership for what happened in the Jerusalem mayoral election. Porush's supporters cannot bring themselves to vote for UTJ where Litzman is no 1 on the list. Shas is trying to capitalize on this and get these disaffected Ashkenazim to vote for them.

I have a hard time believing that this will work, as there is a lot of bias in the Ashkenazi Charedi world against Sefardim and therefore it is hard for me to see many Ashkenzim voting for Shas.

Does it pay to work?

This letter was printed in Yated Neeman.

Dear Editor,

I was called to my son’s cheder to talk about tuition. I was directed to the administrator, who informed me that he would be raising my tuition since, in his words, “You are working in Manhattan and making a nice salary.” (I’m already paying more than most people, as they won’t give me breaks because I’m not learning.)

I tried to explain to him that I am indeed making $61,000 as a computer consultant, but after deducting my work-related expenses, I don’t come out with much more than others. He disagreed with me, and claimed that my salary is a lot higher than what many others earn. And so he decided that I should pay more.

We started discussing the matter and he told me that his salary is $25,000, and that the yeshiva works out his payments so that he is still eligible for government funding. I then explained to him that he makes a lot more than I do. I pay $6,000 in transportation costs a year to get to and from Manhattan, plus another approximately $5,300 for social security, federal and state taxes. (This was a low estimate. I think it’s going to be higher.) I pay another $8,500 for medical insurance. After deducting all these expenses, I am left with $41,200.

He receives approximately $14,500 in HUD, $5,800 in Earned Income Credit, ($4,800 federal + $1,000 state), plus $1,700 in WIC, and $2,100 in HEAP (for utilities). Additionally, his insurance is free (Jersey Care). This leaves him with over $49,000. (This amount is reached even without including other programs, such as free school lunch programs, etc.) This is a lot more than the $41,200 that I make. This calculation also doesn’t include food stamps, because he didn’t volunteer whether or not he receives them. If he does get food stamps, his total income would add up to $56,000. This particular individual is an administrator, but in the event that he was learning full-time and only receiving a kollel check ($4,160) and a night kollel check ($3,000), he would still be making more than $38,000, which is not much less than my $41,200. (This calculation does not include another few thousand dollars possibly earned from morning kollelim, shemiras hasedarim, etc.) To top this all o! ff, I end up paying much more in tuition because I don’t get any breaks.

Add to this the fact that the hours that my wife can work are limited, as she has to carpool the kids and be home with them after playgroup and school hours, since I’m not home until 7 at night. In contrast, this administrator told me that his wife works until later in the afternoon, because he is home between 2 and 4 and takes care of all the carpools and babysitting until his wife returns home from her job.

At the conclusion of this discussion, the administrator told me that he still feels I should pay a higher amount towards tuition since I work.

I am not writing this letter to complain about people being able to manage with the help of government programs. I just want people to understand that just because I work doesn’t mean that I am walking away with more money. In fact, I have the same problems paying tuition as any kollel yungerman may have.

A Yungerman Who Now Works

The situation is very similar in Israel.

Does this sound familiar?

U.N. Staff and Hospital Come Under Shelling as ... Fights Cornered Rebels

...the United Nations confirmed that staff members and their families had come under heavy shelling in what the government told them was a no-fire zone, and a government health official, also behind the front line, described artillery attacks on a hospital compound.
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A shell landed near the compound on Saturday evening, and then another early Sunday morning, killing 9 civilians and wounding more than 20, according to a memo sent by United Nations officials in ... to their headquarters in New York.

“Our team on the ground was certain the shell came from the ... military, but apparently in response to an L.T.T.E. shell,” the memo read. “All around them was the carnage from casualties from people who may have thought they would be safer being near the U.N. Sadly they were wrong that night.”

A United Nations official, speaking Tuesday on condition of anonymity, said the team on the ground had suspected that the rebels were firing at government forces from close to where civilians were taking shelter. “Both sides are egregiously flouting humanitarian norms and principles, and as a result civilians are dying,” the official said.

Where is Ban Ki Moon? How come he is not immediately flying out to visit the scene? How come there are no calls for an immediate cease fire? Where is the emergency session of the Security Council? How come we don't hear the US State Dept. condemning the attacks? Where is the European Union? Why is the BBC's top story "Israeli jets target Gaza tunnels" and not this? The hypocrisy of the world is there for all to see.

The answer is very simple, this is all happening in Sri Lanka and not in Gaza.

So much for the US stopping arms smuggling to Gaza

Remember how Tzipi Livni made a big deal about how she reached an agreement with the US about helping to stop arms smuggling? There it goes, another one of Tzipi's "big accomplishments" down the drain.

U.S. forced to release Iran ship believed to be carrying arms for Gaza

The U.S. navy was forced to release an Iranian boat detained in the Red Sea on suspicion of carrying arms to Hamas-ruled Gaza. Weapons of various kinds were found aboard the ship, which was flying the Cypriot flag when it was stopped January 19.

The ship was released Tuesday when it became apparent that there was no legal basis for holding it.

At a press conference in Washington, Admiral Mike Mullen, who heads the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said although American naval personnel boarded the ship and found the weapons, they had no legal authority to impound the arms. He suggested that more stringent resolutions by the UN Security Council would be required, stating clearly that Iran is violating standards against arms smuggling.

In other words the agreement with the US is not worth the paper it was printed on.

Evaluating the results of the Gaza war

If Israel's deterrent capability in the Gaza Strip has indeed been restored, why has a soldier died there such a short while after the IDF pulled out? Is this not further proof to the Likud's claim that the government needs to let the IDF "win" - in other words, to complete the job and crush Hamas?

It's starting already

A soldier was killed and 3 others wounded by a bomb next to the border fence with Gaza.

It is clear that Hamas is feeling out Israel's responses and is trying to figure out how far they can go. We will see how the current government responds or doesn't respond. If the response is weak Hamas will just step up the pressure.

I"m back

I was traveling on business last week so had little or no time to post. I hope to get back to a regular posting schedule.

The withdrawal has already started

The question is what happens in a week after the army is fully withdrawn and Hamas starts firing a few rockets again? Will Israel re-invade? I seriously doubt it.


Meanwhile many of the soldiers are expressing feelings we missed our opportunity.

Shin Bet Chief: Hamas will resume arms smuggling to Gaza within a few months

Shin Bet Chief: Hamas will resume arms smuggling to Gaza within a few months

So what exactly did we accomplish in the 3 weeks of war?

Ceasefire deja vu

Here is what I think is going to happen. Hamas will cease fire long enough for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. As soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza and frees the reserves they will go right back to what they were doing before the war started. They will test Israel's resolve by firing 1 or 2 rockets. How will Israel respond? Many will say that we can't go to war because of 2 rockets. Hamas will fire just enough to keep the people down South edgy but not enough to justify another full scale attack. They will also start smuggling weapons again. There is absolutely no reason to think that Egypt will do any better at stopping the smuggling now.

Last but not least, they will continue holding Gilad Shalit and use him as a bargaining chip.

In short, it looks like we are back to where we were 6 months ago.

Yitzchak Rabin on giving Gaza to the Palestinians - How wrong he was!

The big questions is would he have had the courage to admit that he made a mistake?



(Hat tip Life In Israel)

A look back at what the left said before the disengagement

It is amazing to watch this clip (English subtitles) and see what the left said about how the disengagement would bring peace and security to Israel. So far I haven't heard anyone of them come clean and say we made a mistake.



(Hat tip The Muqata)