10 Kassams fired yesterday, we are back to where we were before Operation Cast lead
Six weeks ago, Olmert and Barak proudly proclaimed that Operation Cast lead was a great success, had exceeded all goals and restored Israel's deterrence.
At the time I (and many others) predicted that nothing changed and Hamas would go right back to what it was doing. I hate to say it but I told you so.
Here is what I wrote:
Here is what I think is going to happen. Hamas will cease fire long enough for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. As soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza and frees the reserves they will go right back to what they were doing before the war started. They will test Israel's resolve by firing 1 or 2 rockets. How will Israel respond? Many will say that we can't go to war because of 2 rockets. Hamas will fire just enough to keep the people down South edgy but not enough to justify another full scale attack. They will also start smuggling weapons again. There is absolutely no reason to think that Egypt will do any better at stopping the smuggling now.
Last but not least, they will continue holding Gilad Shalit and use him as a bargaining chip.
In short, it looks like we are back to where we were 6 months ago.
My prediction was dead on (it wasn't that difficult). This is exactly what happened.
Even the press has caught on. On the radio this morning, they played clips of OLmert, Barak and Livni at the end of Operation Cast Lead making their triumphant pronouncements. They then played the news bulletins from the past few days reporting Kassams in Ashkelon and in Shaar Hanegev, Sderot etc. They didn't have to say anything, the message was crystal clear.
Can someone explain to me again how Livni managed to get 28 seats 2 weeks ago in the elections?