Sunday, October 26, 2008

Elections in Israel!!!

Livni failed in creating a coalition. Here are the big winners and losers:

1. Netanyahu and the Likud - Netanyahu will most probably be the next PM unless he makes a big mistake or something dramatic happens here.
2. Olmert - If Livni had managed to create a coalition today would have been his last day as PM. Now he has another 3-5 months as PM
3. Eli Yishai - He proved that no one can create a government without Shas

1. Livni - She promised a different politics but what we saw from her over the last month was the same old politics done poorly. Mrs. Clean is no longer Mrs. Clean.She will now go into the elections as Foreign Minister with little ability to do anything to affect her political fortunes. The worst possible scenario for her was for her to negotiate make concessions and not create a government.
2. Barak - His actions and the coalition agreement that he negotiated buried him.

IMHO the Likud should ignore Barak and focus on Livni and Kadima. They can attack her and Kadima on 3 fronts:

1. The war in Lebanon - Kadima was in power and the war was a fiasco. All they need to do is read the relevenat quotes from the Winograd reports
2. UN Resolution 1701 - This is touted as Livni's big achievement. The only problem is that it has been an absolute disaster according to everyone.
3. Leadership ability - the past month has only strengthened the claim that Livni is not a leader.

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