Monday, March 27, 2006

The upcoming election

Polling in Israel has become a joke. In Maariv today we haveהסקר האחרון: קדימה נחלשת, הימין מתחזק with the right wing up to 54 seats. On the other hand, YNet has very different results and so does Haaretz where the left is gaining strength. I really hope that the polls are proven wrong again and once and for all people stop believing the polls. The polls have really changed the election hopefully to Kadima's detriment that many Kadima supporters won't get out and vote because they will think that the lection is in the bag.

The best scenario that I see is the right wing (Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, Ichud Haleumi Mafdal, Shas, and Yahadut Hatorah) getting 61 seats. While this is not probably it is possible. Netanyahu (the best of the worst) would be Prime Minister. This would destroy Kadima.

Another alternative would be for Labor and Likud to form a coalition to block Kadima. This most probably won't happen because of Amir Peretz's hate of Netanyahu.

In any case, the Charedim are sitting pretty. Kadima, Labor and Meretz will probably not have 61 seats and therefore the Charedim will be needed to make a coalition. This is their dream, to be the make or break party for the coalition.

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