Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Election analysis 2015 Israeli Elections - Updated Results

Now that the elections are behind us here is an analysis of the results.


Likud - 30
Machane Hatziyoni (Herzog and Livni) - 24
United Arab List - 14 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) - 11
Kulanu (Kachlon) - 10
Habayit Hayehudi (Bennet) - 8
Shas - 7
Yahadut Hatorah - 6
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) - 6
Meretz - 4 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai) - 0


Big Winner

Netanyahu and the Likud. He greatly outperformed all expectations and got between 5 and 10 more seats then the polls gave him.  His 30 seats combined with the fact that the next largest party in the government will be only 10 seats will give him tremendous power. He should be able to make a pretty stable coalition.

Other Winners

  1. Kachlon - His party will be the second largest in the coalition and he will most probably be the Finance Minister
  2. Deri and Shas - Eli Yishai's party failed to reach the threshold 


Big Loser

Eli Yishai is the big loser of these elections. He gambled that he could get enough votes (4 seats) and get into the Knesset and he lost. He fell short by 10-15,000 votes. This loss probably finishes him in politics.

Other Losers

  1. Herzog - The polls had him leading and he ended up losing by a big margin. He will be stuck in the opposition
  2. Lapid - He went down to 11 seats and will be in the opposition
  3. Bennett - Fell all the way down to 8 seats.
  4. Lieberman - fell all the way to 6 seats, will probably disappear in the next election.

What will the next government look like?

There is really only one realistic coalition based on the results, however, there are 2 other remote possibilities that could happen if for some reasons the negotiations go south.

Probable Coalition

Likud - 30
Kulanu (Kachlon) - 10
Habayit Hayehudi (Bennett) - 8
Shas - 7
Yahadut Hatorah - 6
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) - 6

Total: 67

Probable Ministers

Here are the major ministries and who will probably be the minister:

Prime Minister - Netanyahu
Finance Minister - Kachlon 
Foreign Minister - Likud (Erdan or Steinitz)
Defense Minister - Likud - Yaalon
Justice Minister - Likud
Education Minister - ?
Health Minister - Yahadut Hatorah (Litzman)
Interior Minister - Shas (Deri)
Internal Security Minister - Lieberman?

I would hope that the government doesn't change the law and sticks to 18 ministers.

Other Possible Coalitions

There are 2 other possible coalitions:
1. Yesh Atid replaces the Charedi parties, that would create a coalition of 65. I don't see this happening because I believe that Netanyahu has no interest in dealing with Lapid. The Charedi parties will be a lot easier to satisfy, throw them a little money and they will be happy.
2. Unity government with the Machane Hatziyoni, the 2 parties together have 54 seats they could then add other parties (Kachlon) as needed. I don't see this happening either as the idealogical divide between the 2 parties is quite wide.

The Charedi Perspective

I think that even though the Charedi parties lost seats, they came out winners in that they will be a necessary part of Netanyahu's government and therefore will be able to reverse some of the budget cuts. The bottom line with the Charedi parties is money, and since they will be in the government they will get to feed at the government trough.

1 comment:

bluke said...

What counts as a victory or defeat can be measured relative to the consensus in the latest polls. Another way is relative to the seats in the last Knesset, showing the longer term drift in the electorate. Using the latter measure, Lieberman, Bennett and Lapid suffered big defeats while the Joint List and Labor were winners and of course Netanyahu.